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Among the advantages, the military council that says it will oversee a transition has had its reputation and popular support enhanced by the uprising. By most appearances, the brass pushed Mr. Mubarak out yesterday, after the Egyptian leader refused to step down in a greatly anticipated speech on Thursday night. He enraged the streets and jeopardized the army’s position of neutrality, increasing the chances of violence.
Dictators of long standing rarely leave easily, or quickly, and at least Mr. Mubarak left before more blood was shed. His consiglieri, an ashen-faced Vice President Omar Suleiman, read a 30-second statement to announce Mr. Mubarak’s departure and the transfer of power to the Supreme Council of the Armed Services. Mr. Suleiman, who was previously expected to take over, may be left out of the transition, too tarnished by the events of the past three weeks to play an effective leadership role.
The military has been the power behind the Egyptian throne since the 1952 coup, and skeptics called yesterday’s power shift another military coup. Many other Third World countries have seen generals take over and promise a transition to democracy, only to stay for good. The military has interests that run deep into Egypt’s politics and economy, and the generals will want those safeguarded. But the circumstances of this “coup” are unique. The military yesterday promised to honor the people’s demands for democracy. The last month was also a good lesson for them that in this century free societies tend to be more stable.
Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, who was Egypt’s defense minister, and the other senior officers on the military council can take some obvious steps to build their legitimacy. As soon as possible they should lift emergency rule, which has been enforced since Anwar Sadat’s assassination in 1981 and Mr. Mubarak’s rise to the throne.
By rising up in January, Egyptians claimed their right to free speech and assembly. Such habits of a free society are worth decriminalizing and promoting. Long stifled by Mr. Mubarak’s tight grip, the country hasn’t had time to debate and disagree, nurture opposition figures and join political parties.
This transition will take time, a reality acknowledged by many in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. The demonstrations were all the more remarkable for throwing up no leader in the mold of a Lech Walesa. Speaking on al Jazeera last night, former U.N. official Mohamed ElBaradei talked about “a one-year transition” to free elections. Before those take place, he said that Egypt needs a new constitution drawn up by a provisional council, including figures from the military and opposition. Ayman Nour, an opposition leader jailed by the Mubarak regime, said that Egyptians waited for yesterday for many years and would be patient. This is wise counsel.
Who knows what leader might emerge. Mr. ElBaradei lived abroad until the revolution started, and Mr. Nour’s party lacks deep support and is divided. Marshal Tantawi won good will by appearing on Tahrir Square during the protests.
But the most galvanizing figure of the uprising is the Google executive, Wael Ghonim, who was jailed for a time but emerged with the Nelson Mandela-like message that he sought no revenge against his captors. This, too, is wisdom, because in history’s successful revolutions victors have sought reconciliation rather than reprisals. Think the Philippines and South Africa, not France or Iran.
To satisfy the aspirations of this revolution, the political reforms will have to be credible and deep, not merely cosmetic. A Mubarak in new clothing will invite more trouble down the road. A democracy with proper constitutional checks, competing branches of government and the rule of law offers the best insurance against the rise of a different form of autocracy led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Brotherhood is disciplined and organized and will no doubt fight to gain power. But it’s worth noting that the words heard most often from protestors in Egypt have been “dignity,” “modernity,” “freedom,” “jobs.” We shouldn’t overlook that at this moment the hallmarks of successful societies—democracy and a vibrant free market—appear to have displaced Allah as the galvanizing ideas for the young in Egypt and Tunisia.
Political Islam is so 1979—nowhere more so than in Iran, where an opposition rose up two years ago with the same demands as the Egyptians, only to fail amid a ruthless and violent government crackdown. (See editorial below.) Egypt’s revolt should inspire the Iranians anew, and it will if it ends in greater freedom.
The U.S. and Europe can’t dictate events in Egypt, but they can influence this transition. America’s close ties and $1.5 billion in yearly aid to the military, which has been armed by Washington since the 1979 Camp David accords, will give the U.S. influence with the generals. Another carrot to Egypt’s next leaders would be a free trade agreement and open access to the U.S. and EU markets for its goods as democracy advances.
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President Obama spoke for many Americans yesterday by saying that Egypt’s nonviolent revolution “inspired us” with “a moral force that bent the arc of history toward justice.” He has learned since his embarrassing silence over Iran in 2009. But this is also a day to note that George W. Bush was the President who broke with the foreign policy establishment and declared that Arabs deserved political freedom as much as the rest of the world. He was reviled for it by many of the same pundits who are now claiming solidarity with Egyptians in the streets. We are all neocons now.
Egypt’s march toward political freedom is only beginning, and we can expect more drama and disagreement as it unfolds. But this new Egypt is the best opportunity since 9/11 to change the sclerotic Arab world, and it ought to be seized by Egyptians and their friends.
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The Wall Street Journal, editorial