Meanwhile, the Brotherhood’s deteriorating relations with key foreign governments have hindered its attempts to reorganize in exile. Even so, the group hasn’t revised its ideology or changed its strategy. It has refused to seek reconciliation with the new Egyptian regime or question the feasibility of its theocratic agenda. In fact, by selecting the London-based Brotherhood leader Gomaa Amin as acting Supreme Guide — in other words, its chief executive — the Brotherhood has likely doubled down.
The period since Morsi’s fall has been the darkest in the Brotherhood’s 86-year history. Within Egypt, at least 1,000 Muslim Brothers have been killed during crackdowns on their anti-coup protests, tens of thousands have been imprisoned, and the group’s notoriously rigid chain of command has been decapitated at both the national and provincial levels. The pro-Morsi National Alliance to Support Legitimacy has also collapsed: Many of the Alliance’s non-Brotherhood leaders were arrested in early July, and two of its main constituent parties — the Brotherhood offshoot al-Wasat and the Salafist al-Watan — bolted [1] thereafter. Meanwhile, its cadres’ low-profile insurgency [2] against the state, which targets government buildings and police vehicles, has alienated many potential civilian supporters. Ordinary Egyptians often clash with Muslim Brothers at the organization’s constantly shrinking pro-Morsi demonstrations.
The Brotherhood’s attempt to manage its affairs from abroad is faltering as well. Qatar, which strongly supported Morsi’s presidency and granted many Brotherhood figures asylum when he was ousted, recently responded to pressure from its anti-Brotherhood Gulf neighbors by asking top Brotherhood leaders to leave Doha. (It remains to be seen whether Qatar will adjust the pro-Brotherhood editorial stance of its Al-Jazeera network, or stop funding various other pro-Brotherhood media outlets, many of which employ Muslim Brothers in exile.) The Brotherhood’s safe haven in the United Kingdom — where the organization has maintained a strong presence, including a media office, for decades — has also become a little less welcoming. Earlier this year, the British government launched an inquiry into the organization’s London-based activities, and although the investigation reportedly found no direct links between the Brotherhood and terrorist groups, many anticipate curbs on the organization’s activities in the country. Turkey, which is home to the organization’s Rabaa TV satellite network, is now the Brotherhood’s only reliable sanctuary, although the group seems keenly aware of its deteriorating international standing and is reportedly investigating Tunisia and Malaysia as backup bases.
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Links: [1] http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/111018/Egypt/Politics-/Second-party-pulls-out-of-Egypts-proMorsi-alliance.aspx [2] http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117072/egypts-young-islamists-use-facebook-organize-violence [3] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/subscribe?ban=APRNT [4] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/user
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ERIC TRAGER is the Esther K. Wagner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. GAVI BARNHARD is a research assistant in the Institute’s Fikra Forum program.Copyright © 2002-2012 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All rights reserved. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142108/eric-trager-and-gavi-barnhard/brothers-in-trouble