Let us analyze the results of the recent Presidential election in Egypt. Morsi, the American-educated (he earned his Ph. D from California) engineer and who represents the Muslim Brothers, and Ahmed Shafik who is a product of the military, the last Prime Minister chosen by Mubarak, previous commander of the air force and proven manager who promised a secular government and restoring law and order, were the finalists in an election that will be decided in a run-off scheduled for the middle of June, 2012. The question that begs itself is: does that represent that the Egyptian revolution of last January was hijacked? My answer is that this result in a way confirms that impression and in another way it does not; I will express my opinion on this matter.
Let us start with Morsi. Hassan El-Banna started the Muslim Brother movement in 1923 with its expressed tools are El-Quran and the Guns. All the theocracies of the world last for several generations, are brutal and do not relinquish their powers without bloodshed. In Iran theocrats ruled since 1979, and promise to last for few more years. Both Saudi-Arabia and Iran depend upon their oil while the manufactured products of the 360 million Arabs are exceeded by the five million Fins. Egypt does not have the oil to depend upon and its population grew from less than 20 million, when Nasser took over in 1952, to more than 80 million today. So, Egypt has to capitalize on its location, weather, and tourism, the income from the Suez Canal and the ingenuity of its young people as well as investments from abroad. Therefore, political reform, good governance, economic development and, yes, celebration of diversity become a must. The scourges of corruption, bureaucracy and inefficiency have to be tackled. More importantly, the bleeding of monetary reserves, much reduced investments and the rampant lack of order and security have to be tackled immediately.
The question begs itself: do the results of the first round of elections mean that the revolution was hijacked? Is what the youth did in the 25th of January 2011 become past history and was done in vain? My answer to the two questions is “far from it”. The Jennie is already out of the bottle; the youth will be vigilant on what happens in Egypt, the new amendments to the constitution (although I find them lacking in many ways) require the President to serve a maximum of two terms each of which will be based upon the result of an election. My hope is that the many years after the current President serves one term will be sufficient to write a new secular constitution, to allow various parties to be formed and mature, civic Institutions to be established and citizens will be better educated into how to use Democracy. When I visited DC last October to listen to the youth, I found that they are not organized, they did not know how to work together or elect their leader and they had no platform. I concluded then that they could not possibly win and that sixty years of autocracy had their toll on their thinking and behavior. To assume that the military will relinquish its gains acquired from over two generations of rule is naïve at its best and is totally unrealistic.
Also, to think that America or the west will intervene on behalf of these well-meaning youth is a figment of imagination. America cares most about American and Israeli interests first and foremost; the 1.3 billion Dollars given to Egypt annually is primarily to achieve certain political and military objectives, sustaining the treaty with Israel, maintaining contact with the Egyptian authority and for military reasons in the region. To expect otherwise represents wishful thinking that will never materialize.
Egyptians will do much better to veer away from a religious fervor and they have to resist falling in the trap of promises that can lead to disastrous consequences. The youth have to learn that in order to have a certain product you have to build the appropriate machine to produce it. Tackling the various issues facing Egypt (and they are many) should be paramount in their thinking. Taking credit for the past is tempting but it will yield no lasting results. Improvements have to come from within Egypt and should never be expected to be imposed from without. There is no magic wand that can result in an overnight change. Persistence, perseverance and hard work from selfless qualified individuals are much needed to result in true progress.
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Dr Basta is a professor at a San Francisco University and was Professor of Medicine and Director of the Division of Cardiology at the University of South Florida College of Medicine. He was section editor.